How To Win Big In Football Gambling

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If you’re a serious football fan, you're probably planning to enter an NFL or college football picks pool in 2020. In the most popular type of football pick 'em contest, you have to predict the winners (or point spread winners) of every NFL game over the course of the season. You also may need to assign confidence points to each of your picks.

Betting Strategy A: Bet It All, Every Time Bet your entire balance on each bet. The advantage is that if you win, you win big. The downside, of course, is when you lose, you’re out of money.

In this post, we explore four to make one or two bold upset calls every week to differentiate your picks from your opponents, but in a smaller pool, that approach can actually be counterproductive. Our research clearly shows that picking all the favorites in a small pool — especially in the early going — often maximizes your expected prize winnings.

In the end, the trick is figuring out what level of aggressive vs. conservative pick making makes the most sense for your particular pool. Unfortunately, there's no simple rule of thumb. In order to figure it out, we built software that simulates millions of football pools, and tested how various combinations of picks fared in pools of different sizes.

How To Win Big In Football Gambling

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2. Your Pool’s Rules And Scoring System

It goes without saying that you should know all the rules of your pool. Nevertheless, few NFL pool players appreciate just how significantly their pool's rules or format should impact their week-to-week pick decisions.

If your NFL pick 'em pool offers big rewards for picking upsets, for example, take the time to fully understand the scoring implications. It may turn out that making lots of risky picks and only getting a couple of them right would still be expected to generate a higher score than picking a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Things like whether the games are picked against the spread or straight up, whether confidence points are used, and whether you have to pick every game on the NFL weekly schedule or just a subset of games of your choosing all call for different approaches to pick strategy.

3. Your Pool’s Prize Structure

A pool’s payout structure is a third factor you need to think about when you make your picks each week.

For example, assume you're playing in a 200-entry NFL pick ’em pool and the prize structure is winner-take-all. You’re in fourth place with two weeks to go. In that scenario, you probably have no chance of catching the leader and cashing in the pool unless you start more aggressively picking unpopular teams and hope for the best.

The most likely outcome of that strategy? You drop in the standings, maybe not even finishing in the top 50 by the end. But it's still the right decision, and here's why.

Some Chance Is Better Than No Chance

If you're out of the money and time is running out in your pick 'em pool, making more aggressive upset picks over the final weeks is often your only option to actually catch the leaders and still win a prize. If you assume the pool leaders are going to act rationally, then you would expect them to pick mostly favorites (or all favorites) down the home stretch, since that strategy gives them the best chance to defend their lead.

If the leaders pick favorites, you have literally zero chance of catching them if you pick favorites, too. The only way to potentially make up ground in the final weeks is to pick the opposite way on multiple games, and hope for some unlikely events to play out.

Many players don't understand this concept. They may be in a position where they have some chance of placing in the money toward the end of a pool, even if it's just a slim chance, but they squander that opportunity by picking too conservatively over the final weeks.

DOMINATE YOUR POOL: Free pool picks from TeamRankings

4. Opponent Picking Trends

Win

The 'endgame strategy' we just described is an example of how important it is to think about the concept of game theory when it comes to maximizing your edge in football pools. In short, unless you're defending a lead with time running out, getting a pick right that almost everyone else also gets right won't significantly boost your odds to win the pool.

On the other hand, there are often cases where you can take just a little bit of extra risk on a team that will be a highly unpopular pick in your pool. You'll also find cases where the public is underrating a team that is actually a favorite with a solid chance to win.

Knowing when to fade the crowd and make these types of 'value picks' is a critical part of winning football pool strategy. It's why we gather and publish pick popularity estimates in our Football Pick 'em Picks product, and why that data plays a big role in our pick recommendations.

How To Win Big In Football Gambling Losses

How to win big in football gambling odds

How To Win Big In Football Gambling Odds

Expert Picks From The Football Pool Pros

To maximize your edge in a football picks pool, you need to consider the four strategy factors we reviewed in this post. Many players either don't understand how important these factors are or simply don't have what it takes to incorporate them into their pick strategy.

In their defense, it's not easy to do. Making the pool picks that give you the best chance to win requires a lot of data and a lot of math — all of which takes a lot of time. If you want an edge but prefer to outsource all the research, please check out our site using the links below.

Whether you go it alone in 2020 or enlist our help, good luck in your football pick 'em contests this season, and we hope you learned something from this article. It always takes some luck to win a football pool, but the more skill you have, the less luck you need.

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2020 NFL Picks from TeamRankings:

How To Win Big In Football Gambling Winnings

Survivor Pick 'em Betting

How To Win Big In Football Bet

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